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Thursday, August 19, 2004

THE GOOGLE GIGGLE

I should preface the post today by saying that I am not one you should necessarily be looking to for investing advice. I have nothing to invest with, but...

I use the search engine
Google a lot. A huge amount. I use it most every day. I find it fast, efficient, and unfailing in finding a lot of stuff that I need. Radio station websites, articles, research...you name it. Now, if you're a web-geek, please don't send me little missives about a better search engine that you use and how no one knows about it because they're basically computer illiterate...and how Google is just another "sell out" of the web culture. You readers can do a test for web-geeks sometime like I have done in the past...all you have to do is mention "Microsoft Windows" and you'll get thousands of people responding about a better operating system and how Microsoft sucks and how he stole the technology for Windows and how something like Red Hat's operating system (I forget what it's called) is so much better and doesn't crash...and it goes on and on and on. I know you people exist and that's fine...but this post isn't about that.

My wife has been listening occasionally to the news. And the
Google IPO (she doesn't even know what that stands for) is going to be really cool and maybe we should think about investing in it. Now, again, forgetting about the fact that we have nothing to invest...I asked her a few questions that I think you yourself might ask if you're considering the same thing:

  1. Do you know what an IPO is? If you don't, you probably shouldn't spend the 85-bucks for a share or two. It's stands for Initial Public Offering...and it basically means you can buy the first stock certificates made available when a company "goes public"...
  2. Do you know what "going public" is? If you don't...again...don't waste your money.
  3. Do you know where Google is located? Not on the web...but their physical operations. Brick and mortar they used to call it. Can you find the address of the company and walk into their building and see the people milling about doing their jobs? If not, try a Google search to find it before you invest your money.
  4. History can repeat itself, do you remember something called "Monster" or any of the other 1997 Super Bowl commercials? I can't believe people can fall for something like this again after experiencing the "dot-com boom" of the 90's...and forgetting every lesson from the bubble burst. I guess that explains why scams that are decades old still work today...the pigeon drop, the left-over asphalt repair crew, the pyramid investment plan...it's all rather scary to think it could happen again. I know, it's only one stock...but it's really strange to see all the hype again.
  5. Do you know how they make their money? If none of the other questions bother you, this one should above all. How does Google actually make money? I know they do...but so did Enron. I'm asking you how they pay their bills (if they have any)...and just who is writing a check to Google for anything. I've been reading several of the articles about the Google IPO and all the hype surrounding it...and I don't know about you, but I find it a little scary to see the tiny mentions of how they make money buried deep in the article in paragraph 13. Not a good sign.

Look, I could be wrong about this...and I'm not the wisest investment guru guy...but I think these are basic questions anyone should ask before they plunk down 85-bucks a share for a company they've heard of...but don't know. I'll eat my words someday when Google is bigger than McDonald's or Coca-Cola and there's a franchise operation in every city and I see it on every shelf in the store...but I think I'm right about this one, folks. Put your money in something you know.

I think Warren Buffet used that advice.


Comments:
My $.02, check these out:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MUHLX&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

&

http://www.muhlenkamp.com/

Ron Muhlenkamp is a Republican too!
 
My $.02? You will never as a private investor get in on the best part of an IPO unless the institutional guys want you to-IE it's headed down. When the average Joe got in yesterday the stock was already selling for $100+.

Is Google a good search engine? You bet. Is Google a good corporate investment? Time will tell.

One thing is for sure: Due to the unique SEC filing and the way the IPO works on this one, Google will be selling (diluting) more stock in 30 days-I don't see how that can do anything but run the price down?

Investment? Try QQQ, DIA, or SPY between now and Nov 2-especially if it looks like a Bush victory. Leave GOOG (and for that matter all indivudual stocks) to people who have money to lose.

Your example of Coke is a good one, but what happens tomorrow if the FDA announces that Coke causes cancer...or McDonalds is the cause of 50 cases of mad cow disease (BSE)?

It's a heck of a lot easier-and safer-to guess a market direction and diversify across that market than a stocks. As I said, my $.02.

Ray the Librarian
 
Ray,

I'd look to DVY for an exchange traded fund that will most likely perform well. PWC is another! Mixing in some of both would be the wisest choice.
 
Calls 'em like I knows 'em. I made over 80% on the Q's last year... I'll check your suggestions though!

RTL
 
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